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The Picture Of Inaccuracy: The Evolving Estimates Of BP's Oil Leak
BP CEO Tony Hayward
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On May 5, BP CEO Tony Hayward told Congress in a closed-door briefing that, in the worst-case scenario, the oil well in the Gulf Coast would leak 60,000 barrels of oil per day.
Back then, official government estimates said the well was leaking 5,000 barrels of oil every day. Those estimates have since been repeatedly revised, most recently to reflect an estimated leakage of 35,000-60,000 barrels of oil per day.
Here's a look at how the estimates evolved over time:
April 23: 200 barrels per day.
April 24: 1000 barrels per day.
April 28: 5000 barrels per day.
May 27: 12,000-19,000 barrels per day.
June 10: 20,000-40,000 barrels per day.
June 15: 35,000-60,000 barrels per day.
Chart by TPM Intern Erik Hinton.
Comments (13) | Join the Conversation!
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Ugg the Repug
June 16, 2010 6:54 PM
Ugg like. Do more, Erik.
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rbeats
June 16, 2010 7:27 PM
So we have about 1 exxon valdez every 6 days now? It was 8 days before the last upped amount.
So by next Tuesday another exxon valdez will have spilled into the Gulf.
Nice job. You think this could spur Obama to actually put some real progressive clean energy policies ON THE TABLE...ohh who am I kidding, we have an ineffectual leader who wants to compromise...
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mvilla
June 16, 2010 7:50 PM in reply to rbeats
Nah, it looks like about every 4-5 days now, and who knows if even that figure is too conservative.
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MobiusKlein
June 16, 2010 7:40 PM
In some fairness, some oil experts suspect the rate has been increasing due to erosion and channel formation in the underground deposit.
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justaJ0e
June 17, 2010 8:45 AM in reply to MobiusKlein
Although that would only account for a few hundred, maybe a few thousand BBL a day ... while their first weeks estimates were 50 THOUSAND BBL low.
BP was obfuscating the truth from the beginning. They were the only ones with any access to the broken pipe so they were hoping to get it turned off before anyone knew the truth.
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bdop4
June 16, 2010 7:41 PM
This graphic needs to be made into a T-shirt.
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justaJ0e
June 17, 2010 8:49 AM in reply to bdop4
Perhaps the T-shirt should have a picture of Tony Hayward's head with this graphic overlayed on his forehead.
Just a thought.
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rwspisak
June 16, 2010 8:01 PM
How can we continue to ignore the growing mountain of lies from BP and the spill managers?
The Noble Prize winner's ideas were turn away by bureaucrats?
No ones in charge of giving access, but any private security guiard, or small town bought off sheriff can prohibit the [FREE PRESS] from photographing or visiting because they might cause damage??? More damage than 60,000 barrels a day?
There is a limit on the damage they are responsible to pay, but no limit on the damage they can do?
REEF HUGGERS UNITE!
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sherifffruitfly
June 16, 2010 9:21 PM
Only caveat I'd like to see addressed is whether the flow rate has in fact been (approximately) constant in that time interval.
Obviously that would affect conclusions about the accuracy of changing estimates.
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June 16, 2010 9:33 PM
BP has never stopped lying about every aspect of their disaster. They have consistently lowballed the leak to save themselves money on cash payments for tied to its size.
http://www.facebook.com/campaigncorner
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Leo
June 17, 2010 3:02 AM
In a disaster, the "conservative" guess is an OVERestimate of the damage, not an underestimate.
What possible good has come of making underestimates? What possible good could have _ever_ come of erring on the low side??!?!
Hence "assume the worst".
I think it might go to 80k
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Humpback
June 17, 2010 11:49 AM
This is a poor chart. It appears to be a target, where most people assume that the bull's eye is the most accurate, top rated, best score. So at first glace, it says that 200 barrels is the best estimate. That is not what the grapher intended to say. It would have been better at a hockey stick graph, with the estimate rising along the y-axis.
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KennyBoy
June 17, 2010 3:48 PM
If they had blown up the well in the first week BP would have permanently lost the well, all of the oil and gas in it and their entire investment in that operation. But we wouldn't have lost the gulf.
I wish some congressperson would say to one of these "masters of the universe" in face of their denials about knowing anything about what goes on in their company: "If know so little about your company then why are you being paid so damn much money?"
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