CHART OF THE DAY: The Scariest Job Chart Ever Just Got Even Scarier

YIKES!!!!!!!

This is the first time that I've seen this, so I may need for information/study. But...
The first question that I have is, "Do any of the other lines include Census hiring or other such massive, short term hiring?" If so, they aren't comparing apples to apples.
Second, it says, "we're already flattening out on the dotted line. This is a shape not seen on the other lines." Am I missing something? Because I see that pattern in other lines. Look at the brown 2001 line. It bottomed out from month 24 to month 29, rose from 29 to 31, and then flattened out from 31 to 32. It also flattened out again from 34 to 35 and 43 to 44. All while continuing to rise. Plus, the pink 1981 line actually had a fall (from 18 to 19) right after it started its climb.
It seems to me that there are "steps" (flattenings or falls) in the rise of any economic data. For example, look at the chart of a stock that's been on the rise. It doesn't go up every day. It flattens and pulls back while on its upward trajectory.
Like I said, I may be missing something.

Just as scary is that we've had 11 recessions in the past 60 years.

Thanks Republicans! Thanks for all your "free market" unregulated bullshit! Thanks for all your tax cuts for rich fucks! Thanks for your borrowing TRILLIONS of dollars for tax cuts for rich fucks and two god damned wars for no good reason! Thanks for union busting! Thanks for not investing shit in education or infrastructure! Thanks for not investing in alternative green energy! Thanks for not raising fuel economy standards for 20 years!

Bill Clinton raised tax rates on the rich and had a budget surplus! Bill Clinton created 22 MILLION new jobs during 8 years of peace and prosperity. It is more than time to return to sanity in this country and start having the greedy bastards who have raped our economy for the last 8 years start paying to have it made whole again! Time to quit being a banana republic and start being a DEMOCRACY again!

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Not quite. In every one of those charts there are slight pullbacks during the recovery. The dotted-red line still qualifies as a slight pullback (and doesn't appear to be pointing down yet, like the pullbacks during previous recessions).

Free markets solve everything.

uhhhh ... what did Rahm Emanuel, Larry Summers, Clinton, Reagan and the Bush's frikkin' THINK was going to happen when they busted the unions and started outsourcing every frikkin' job they could to India and China? It's not a "job recession", it's the natural result of a carefully orchestrated permanent change.

First, one month does not make a trend.

Second, the assertions made in this article are contradicted -- in multiple places -- by the graph itself.

For example, look at 1958: It DECLINES between the 10 and 11 "Number of Months" mark and is flat between the 15th and 16th marks.

Again, you can't use one month to anticipate a trend. Indeed, if you are looking at trends, the overall current trend is still toward job creation. Job creation may be robust some months, negative some months, or flat in some months, and still describe a net positive trend.

We may indeed be headed for a "double dip," but that cannot be determined from one month's numbers.

[Also note that monthly numbers are usually revised. This month's number (specifically private sector jobs) will likely be revised next month. It's possible that it may be revised down. It's also just as possible that it may be revised up.]

I notice the longest in time are the last 4. Scarier, they are getting progressively longer.
Of course, Obama will be blamed for all 4.

My company has hired over 80 people in the last 2.5 years. We're only 4 years old as a company.

My first question is this. Why should you or anyone think that any recession is comparable to any other recession? My second question is this. What does anyone do to predict the future based upon past events, even those with lots of mixed data. Do you rely solely on probability models? What if they are wrong?

Anyone?

It seems some people failed basic reading comprehension, or maybe just reading.

This is not a TPM story. It's a Business Insider and Calculated Risk story; Business Insider calls it the scariest chart ever. Calculated Risk is just some guy out in California. Oh, and a woman named Tanta used to blog for him.

Here is a link to her obituary, with an excerpt below:

Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47

The blogger Tanta, an influential voice on the mortgage collapse, died Sunday morning in Columbus, Ohio.

Tanta, who wrote for Calculated Risk, a finance and economics blog, was a pseudonym for Doris Dungey, 47, who until recently had lived in Upper Marlboro, Md. The cause of death was ovarian cancer, her sister, Cathy Stickelmaier, said.

Thanks in large part to Tanta’s contributions, Calculated Risk became a crucial source of prescient analysis as the housing market at first faltered, then collapsed and finally spawned a full-blown credit crisis.

[snip to end]

So, you know: ahem, dudes.

Nonstatisticans do not know how to interpret stochastic data. There is nothing special to these observations (the dotted lines).

What are you looking at?

"we're already flattening out on the dotted line. This is a shape not seen on the other lines. "

Are you kidding? Almost every single one has at least a short flattening or downturn at some point after the upslope begins? Also, did you account for temp/stimulus hiring in other recoveries?

Trickle-Down Economics... the gift that just keeps on giving.

Guys, take a harder look at the graph.

For instance, look at the bright blue line between the 15 and 16 notches. Do you suppose it would have been wise, if the graph stopped there, to assume that this was as far as things would recover? Or the brown line between 24 and 29? Or the tan line between 17 and 18? Etc.

I should not have to point out to TPM how data gathering and charting works. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes down.

When I hear stuff like this from other news sources, I surmise one of four things:

1) It is a news source trying to frighten me so that I will think that news source has important things to say. (usually achieves the opposite, in my case)

2) It is written by someone with an agenda that is furthered by my being in a state of panic about this topic.

3) It is written by someone who has been spun by someone fitting the description of #2, above.

4) It is written by someone who is just that stupid.

I really don't want to think that any of these apply to TPM. Must I?

I'd say Bush killed America, but it was more a combination of Reagan, Clinton and Bush -- neoliberals all.

Maybe if we get back to our principles and get control of corporations and the military, we'll prosper again.

With what natural resources I don't know. We're ill-educated (thanks to Reagan) and we've thoroughly raped the land, and we have no work ethic. But if we can only control corporations, cut the wasteful military spending, and restore pay equity, future generations might still have a chance.

Presuming the massive climate change we've set in motion doesn't get us first, or the massive global catastrophe as 4 billion people find themselves without the oil-based fertilizer needed for the green revolution.

Or China, of course, whose educated middle class is bigger than our total population and who can afford to buy up the last of the oil.

heck of a job, neoliberals. heck of a job.

There is a component to outsourcing that may not be obvious. Asia has been industrializing in the information age, particularly but not exclusively in parts of China. Asia has been creating a ginormous wave of software engineer graduates. It isn't that jobs are being outsourced to Asia, it is more like entire companies are appearing in Asia by the dozens, and they are developing products. They not only can develop products quickly, they have cross-the-street access to all the manufacturing that we used to have.

I know nothing about these things, but suspect this chart is misleading. And Weisenthal is not someone to trust. This is the guy who reported Gov Paterson's resignation on Super Bowl Sunday.

Unless I missed it, I'm surprised nobody mentioned the culpability of the Federal Reserve and their artificial manipulation of interest rates for the economic disaster that is the U.S. economy. The Fed under Greenspan laid the foundation for the biggest leveraged asset bubble in the history of the world that burst in 2008, and it is Bernanke's Fed that is doing his best to reinflate the bubble, only this time, it will be called the Great Government Debt bubble. Let's also be clear for anyone who thinks otherwise - there is no recovery happening, not by a longshot. The only tepid ecomic good news we are getting here and there is due purely to the trillions of dollars worth of Keynesian stimulus/bailouts/cash for clunkers/etc. that has been puked into the economy for the last two years, and will only make things much, much worse in the long run. Look at it this way, two years ago we had a huge financial crisis. what's been solved or fixed - nothing! The only thing that has been done is that a massive amount of debt has been shifted from the private to the public sectors, destroying the economic landscape for out kids and grandkids. And lets not forget the $100 trillion or so in unfunded obligations for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Only solution I can see: Cut every freakin Government agency and expenditure by 25% and raise interest rates substantially to strengthen the dollar. At least this will give us credibility in the sovereign debt markets, stave off hyperinflation, and give us more time to sort things out. Also, outlaw all derivatives until the economy is on its feet again. As far as taxation, I don't like more taxes, but if you want to soak the rich to quell the masses, go ahead. It won't work, they'll figure out ways around it, but you can try.