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A new report from the USDA, via The Atlantic, examines the potential effect of a soda tax as a possible obesity curb.

Not surprisingly, since you wouldn't expect a government agency to say that a tax wouldn't help the government, the USDA's conclusion is that such a tax would work.

Here is is in a nutshell.

soda-tax.png

From the agency:

A tax-induced 20-percent price increase on caloric sweetened beverages could cause an average reduction of 37 calories per day, or 3.8 pounds of body weight over a year, for adults and an average of 43 calories per day, or 4.5 pounds over a year, for children. Given these reductions in calorie consumption, results show an estimated decline in adult overweight prevalence (66.9 to 62.4 percent) and obesity prevalence (33.4 to 30.4 percent), as well as the child at-risk-for-overweight prevalence (32.3 to 27.0 percent) and the overweight prevalence (16.6 to 13.7 percent).

A tax of this sort may be inevitable. States and cities need cash, and there's a compelling health argument for limiting soda And as ths seems to show, like all taxes, there will be an effect on consumption.

The original version of the story appears here.

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Comments (69) | Join the Conversation!

July 6, 2010 5:10 PM   

A "reduction of 37 calories per day" would not cause a typical person to lose "3.8 pounds of body weight over a year."

Our bodies adjust to small changes in calories to maintain our weights.

A typical person would still be eating within his or her weight-maintenance range after a reduction of 37 calories per day.

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July 6, 2010 5:17 PM    in reply to Eric Jaffa

Doing away with 37 useless, sugary calories would be good whether or not you lose an ounce.

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July 6, 2010 5:22 PM    in reply to Spiffarino

Should people have to pay a new tax when they buy a bag of sugar, too?

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July 6, 2010 5:29 PM    in reply to Eric Jaffa

No, because it's actual sugar. But if it's high-fructose corn syrup then tax the living shit out of it.

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July 6, 2010 5:51 PM    in reply to Spiffarino

You're both kinda right. People who don't get their sugar fix from their soda are going to get it from a candy bar. But we should definitely tax the living shit of high fructose corn syrup.

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Ted

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July 6, 2010 7:09 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Agreed.
And eliminate the sugar subsidy.
Taxing HFCS may make ending the sugar subsidy more tolerable to that industry.
Just taxing soda seems unfair; it amazes me, now that I read labels, just how many food products have the HFCS in them.

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July 6, 2010 7:46 PM    in reply to Ted

What sugar subsidy? You apparently don't know how the sugar program works. There's no subsidy. Prices are supported by limiting imports. You should say, "get rid of the import limits and put Florida and Louisiana cane growers and North Dakota and Michigan beet growers out of business."

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July 7, 2010 2:20 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

And red meat. Too much red meat is bad for you, too. And eggs. And those sugary cereals. Anything with too much salt. Potato chips, french fries and anything made with saturated fats.

There's a fine line between promoting healthy living and being a nanny state. I'm pretty sure this is well over it.

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July 6, 2010 5:52 PM    in reply to Spiffarino

you know what really helps kids lose weight?

doing what my parents did...kicking them out of the goddamn house and telling them to go run around and ride their bikes and play with friends...and if they get thirsty there's a hose outside they can drink from

and guess what

*GASP!*...i wasn't a fat kid

best way for lazy adults to lose weight...and involve their kids...take family walks in the evening either before or after dinner...and not just casual strolls...put in some effort and walk a few miles

and stop drinking soda...you fat bastards

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July 6, 2010 6:40 PM    in reply to NerdRage

@NerdRage: "*GASP!*...i wasn't a fat kid"

Yeah, cause anecdotal evidence totally trumps EVERYTHING else!

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July 7, 2010 12:41 PM    in reply to haydesigner

It's not anectdotal. It's logical. There's a difference. Eating less sugar and walking a couple miles a day really will help you be LESS FAT. I don't know why that's hard to understand.

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July 7, 2010 8:34 AM    in reply to Spiffarino

Why is it news that when you tax something you get less of it? Duh.

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July 6, 2010 5:17 PM    in reply to Eric Jaffa

Agreed, 37 calories per day is negligible.

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July 6, 2010 5:20 PM    in reply to Eric Jaffa

cutting out soda can lead to cutting sugar in your other meals and may actually lead some people to exercise. I am for whatever will get people started.

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July 6, 2010 6:56 PM    in reply to Viva!America!

Me too. I cut out all (as much as possible) refined sugar from my diet about 5 years ago and I lost about 7 pounds in 6 months and that was the only thing I cut out of my diet. I didn't drink sodas, but I loved sweet tea and sweet coffee.

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July 6, 2010 5:50 PM    in reply to Eric Jaffa

key word is "average": some people will continue drinking soda just the same, some people may stop altogether, and everything in between. The most drastic weight changes will occur with the people that greatly reduce their intake, resulting in an average reduction as stated above, according to this report.

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bej

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July 6, 2010 5:57 PM    in reply to Eric Jaffa

This isn't as negligible as some might think.

B/c they're likely using total sweetened-beverage consumption vs TOTAL# children (or adults). This is a safe assumption since when a mom purchases a case of sodapop, there's no way of knowing how many children (or adults) will be consuming it.

CONSEQUENCE of this idea?

There are MANY children (or adults) who do not drink these sweetened beverages. In other words, the 37 calories is an average, ounces/TOTAL#children. Since the consumption is 0 for MANY of these kids (or adults), in order to get an average of 37, the children (or adults) who do consume will be consuming considerably more than 37 calories per day.

For the math-challenged let's simplify this to a population of 3. Suppose 1 consumes 111 calories, while the other two consume zero. The average would be 37, but the consumer actually consumed 111.

So it's no as negligible as you might think.

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July 6, 2010 5:13 PM   

I say tax junk food as well. There are too many fatties waddling across this country.

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July 6, 2010 5:15 PM   

How about banning HFCS from foodstuffs? There's a good start.

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July 6, 2010 5:33 PM    in reply to Spiffarino

Or perhaps even just *not subsidizing* it anymore? Not that even that small step is likely to happen, given the major $$$ behind the corn lobby.

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July 6, 2010 5:44 PM    in reply to Matt Jones

That's no lie. The corn lobby owns every midwestern politician and then some, and none of them could care less that our children are being poisoned with a chemical that processes in the liver and turns directly into triglycerides in the blood stream.

Forget the lies you hear on TV, people. The shit is poison.

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July 6, 2010 5:22 PM   

we need a Sugar Party. This is nonsense; children are fat because they don't get off their asses all day. Why not have an obesity tax instead. You can make a lot more, since more people are getting fatter, and as far as health goes,if we really do care, this will certainly incentivize people to lose weight!

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July 6, 2010 5:30 PM    in reply to Whenwillthisnightmareend

How about an intelligence party instead. You can exercise until the cows come home. But if you do not eat right you are still going to have poor health. HFCS which can be found in just about every kind of food should be taxed and or banned. But then that would go against the whole govt promoting fruits and vegetables while providing massive subsidies to corn farmers.

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July 6, 2010 5:38 PM    in reply to Whenwillthisnightmareend

I just got back Sunday from a trip to Switzerland, Italy and France. In the two weeks over there I saw very few people who would qualify as fat in the U.S. I also discovered that very few of them eat the kind of shit we stuff into our unsuspecting gullets three times a day. True, McDonald's is in every country and it does good business, but most people don't make a habit of it because it sucks and it's expensive. Furthermore, why would you when you can go to most any street buy a sandwich on a crisp, fresh baguette filled with prosciutto and real cheese, and a drink for $3.50 that has half the calories and tastes two-hundred times better?

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July 6, 2010 5:54 PM    in reply to Spiffarino

Not to mention that EU standards are much higher than in the US. So even though it is still *junk* food, it's much better than the stuff you get in the US.

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July 6, 2010 10:53 PM    in reply to Whenwillthisnightmareend

Need a sugar party? We *are* a sugar party.

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July 6, 2010 5:36 PM   

How about we start by ending govt subsidies for the corn farmers so at least the HFCS will go up to a fair market value - which they can then pass on to the cost of goods.

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July 6, 2010 5:44 PM    in reply to DragonBonz

Word.

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July 6, 2010 7:53 PM    in reply to DragonBonz

I don't think there's another person posting here who knows how federal farm programs work. I keep reading, "Get rid of subsidies," like that will change supply or demand. What do you think farmers will do if they get rid of crop subsidies? Those who can't do without them will sell out to their larger neighbors or, where it's legal, to corporations. You'll have fun if half the corn in this country is owned by Corn, Inc. You'll need to take out a loan to buy groceries.

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July 6, 2010 10:21 PM    in reply to gjdodger

Apparently you do not get it(or you are part of the corn lobby), the corn market is already controlled by corporate america.
The vast majority of subsidies in this country go to growing corn and soybeans. Not fruits and all the other vegetables, and thus you find soybean and corn products in just about everything you eat.
However, plenty of smaller farmers can be supported by buying locally grown produce. You can stop buying food with high fructose corn syrup, which also has been found to contain heavy metals, and eat healthier foods.
It amazes my how little you and most of the population in this country understand where your food comes from or even care.
Our country lets itself be led around by corporate usa and buy into all of its marketing about what we should eat.
One day we are going to wake up and find ourselves living in a third rate nation too fat and stupid to realize we are nothing but corporate batteries.

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July 7, 2010 3:11 PM    in reply to gjdodger

Umm, actually most of those subsidies go to agribusiness growing corn.

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July 6, 2010 5:48 PM   

Two studies on soda, one on HFCS (yes, there is some evidence it's worse thant sugar)
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20219526
Rats fed HFCS were significantly more obese than those fed table sugar, including developing unhealthy belly fat and having bad triglyceride profiles. This is more shocking as the amount of HFCS used was less than half that used in soda. While table sugar is still not good for you, HFCS may be much worse.

This study has not been done in humans. I don't mean this as a way of saying it's just a rat study, but as in THIS HASN"T BEEN DONE IN PEOPLE AND 40% OF OUR SWEETENERS ARE THIS STUFF AND WE DON"T FRIGGIN KNOW THE HARM. Sorry, I hate all caps too, but I find this alarming. So we really need more research on the topic.

Another study seeing blood pressure going down an average of two points per every less can of soda per day.
http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.911164v1

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July 6, 2010 5:55 PM    in reply to Snig

Actually, I'm pretty sure we, in fact, are running that experiment in humans. The problem is that n=300,000,000.

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July 7, 2010 12:45 PM    in reply to Snig

www.marksdailyapple.com

We need to eliminate or drastically reduce not just the consumption of HFCS but of all refined sugars, processed carbohydrates, etc. In essence, we need to eat more real, actual food and less food-like substances.

Anything that isn't real, actual food (i.e. apples, broccoli, eggs, chicken, etc) gets taxed.

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July 6, 2010 5:51 PM   

One reason children have weight problems is fear. Parents today watch TV news, where every newscast emphasizes that the world is filled with creeps who prey on children who dare to be away from home without adult guards (parents). So, parents limit their children to supervised play or indoor play, which usually means video games.

Children used to play outdoors, with only casual supervision by adults. Play means fun. Fun is what all children want. But, if you can't venture outdoors without a parent tagging along, you can't have vigorous play exercise.

So, let's prohibit local TV news from broadcasting "news" based entirely on fear. How about a fear tax?

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July 6, 2010 6:23 PM   

how about taxing all junk food? we tax cigs and booze because it hurts our health; why not junk food?

how about "no tax" on basketballs, bikes, soccer balls...you know, things that you have to be active to use.

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July 6, 2010 6:37 PM   

Republicans and Beck U grads will have seizures over this if they try it. That'll burn a lot of calories too.

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July 6, 2010 6:47 PM   

How about a taxing corn syrup and all the products that contain it. It would not only raise revenues, but it would reduce health costs and improve every American's health across the board.

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July 6, 2010 6:47 PM   

Wow, these health stories always bring out the cuckoo birds. The HFCS scare stories are generally leveled by the same wackos who think aspartame causes every ailment under the sun.

The problem with U.S. obesity levels is a mixture of massive calorie intake, and too little energy output.

37 calories is nothing; especially for the morbidly obese.

These foods are only problems in the hands of people who overindulge. Treating them like poisons is not going to drive home any message. It sounds hysterical.

Oh, and please, vaccinate your children.

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July 7, 2010 4:42 AM    in reply to itheuser

Speaking of which, for all the people pointing out how much better food is in Europe, aspartame is in everything there. In the US it's pretty much only in diet sodas and such, but there it's in regular soda, orange juice, just about everything that's slightly sweet. Frankly, I prefer HFCS to aspartame thank you very much.

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July 7, 2010 11:31 AM    in reply to itheuser

I actually think the HFCS is a little less kooky to be opposed to than the sweeteners and additives. First because its frequently the 2nd or 3rd ingredient, ie most of what you're eating, and also b/c personally I can only drink three real sugar sodas a day but HFCS regularly has me drinking 5 or even 6.

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July 6, 2010 6:55 PM   

Taxing HFCS/sugar water will likely have the same effect on consumption that the tax on alcohol has had, which is that it doesn't have an effect on consumption but does grow government coffers. People are going to get what they want regardless.

As for HFCS in general, should it be taxed heavily — which won't ever happen — it would go a long ways to getting it out of what is now nearly every product in the supermarket. That alone would have a great effect on obesity as well as the growing prevalence of diabetes.

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July 6, 2010 7:01 PM   

So much debate over whether 20% tax will really have an impact. Lets go for 200% tax, maybe that will.

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July 6, 2010 8:04 PM   

Cool. I haven't consumed soda for a few decades, but I am definitely average, so taxing soda would be a welcome, no-effort way for me to lose weight.

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July 6, 2010 8:55 PM    in reply to mom2homer

this is the dumbest comment I've read in quite some time

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July 6, 2010 10:58 PM    in reply to Captain Obvious

Oh the irony!

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July 7, 2010 4:54 AM    in reply to Captain Obvious

Breathtaking in its inanity. +10 (margin of error ± 0%).

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July 6, 2010 8:18 PM   

I used to drink 6-8 cans of pepsi a day (yup, 1000 calories each and every day). Three years ago I gave it up cold turkey, not because of my weight (which was not a problem), but my teeth. What I'm saying is I have soda cred.

I'm also a liberal and a democrat, but I think taxing soda is a bad idea with limited effectiveness that would only reinforce the meme that the government is meddling in things it has no business meddling in.

If they wanted to motivate people to make the right choices and also help limit the government's health care liability, there should be a deductible based on a simple measure of a person's fitness -- percent body fat and resting heart rate. Drop your fat or drop your resting heart rate and the deductible goes down.

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July 6, 2010 10:44 PM   

I find it is odd that the government is going to raises taxes on a product that they subsidize, namely corn. High fructose corn syrup is one of the main ingredients in soda and many other sweetened products that corporate america peddles. Our government says eat healthy, eat fruits and vegetables yet spends only a tiny fraction of farm subsidies on anything other than corn and soybeans.

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July 7, 2010 4:58 AM    in reply to concerned parent

Welcome to (your newfound understanding of corporate) America.

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July 7, 2010 1:30 AM   

This could be done to raise revenue, but no one will lose weight from it.

I drink hardly any soda, but I find that if I try to cut down on chocolate, I eat more cheese; and so on.

People who drink a lot of soda may drink slightly less, but will make it up by eating or drinking other sweet stuff.

We all have our needs/craving for the sweet, the fat, the salty.

The only way to lose weight is have the will to cut down on total calories and increase exercise.

Maybe the USDA can fund some research on will power, LOL.

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July 7, 2010 6:25 PM    in reply to Nancy Irving

@Nancy Irving Thank you for that voice of reason, we agree - all calories count and that is why taxing single foods or beverages will fail to make Americans healthier.

Audrae Erickson, Corn Refiners Association

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July 7, 2010 7:21 AM   

I cut out all soda pop about six weeks ago, making no other changes in my diet or exercise patterns. As of this morning, my weight has dropped from 194 to 180 with no effort other than bagging the soda. Do it! It works.

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July 7, 2010 9:14 AM   

Maybe corporations like Coke and Pepsi could pay their fair share of income taxes. Then we would not have to tax the end product to make ends meet.

Or is that too simple of a solution?

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July 7, 2010 10:03 AM   

If they're concerned about weight gain, why aren't they taxing diet sodas? Several recent studies have shown a link between diet soda consumption and weight gain because the artificial sweeteners stimulate hunger. http://www.fooducate.com/blog/2010/01/03/three-reasons-to-rethink-that-diet-coke-youre-about-to-drink/

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July 7, 2010 11:13 AM   

There is no real difference on health between sugar and High Fructose Corn Syrup. Sugar is 50% fructose, HFCS is about 55% fructose. They are both the fundamental cause of obesity, in addition to portion size.

Before industrial food, people ate about 15 to 20 grams of sugar a day, on average. Today, they eat between 40 and 60.

Watch this lecture - sugar, the bitter truth: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM

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July 7, 2010 4:39 PM    in reply to moab


Read:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20219526

No. a disacharride is not the same as a monosacharride. Different chemicals, triggers different hormonal/enzymatic responses. The glycolytic pathway found in most texts is a simplification of a much more convoluted set of overlapping pathways. It's not cut and dried, it's not a 100% understood and it's still not been studied in humans. Once they've done the research they can, glossing over it and making the assumption is not sensible when millions of lives are at stake. Assuming the body always takes the easy route, and that it's as simple as it looks on the surface will not get you far in science. I remember the old arguments that there was nothing wrong with white bread, trans fats or junk food, as the body was capable of breaking it all down. Same argument.

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July 7, 2010 5:10 PM   

I don't get your point.

Sucrose is split by the body (sucrase enzymes) into fructose and glucose. Fructose is the problem as the body can not handle it easily, with the liver having to break it down. One consumes almost the same amount of fructose whether you are eating an equal amount of sugar or HFCS. They are both equally bad. It is the amount of fructose consumed that is the issue, not the type.

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July 7, 2010 5:38 PM    in reply to moab

Pasta is broken down into simple sugars. Therefore you can eat pasta or simple sugars, with your body not figuring out the difference. True or false and why?

I agree the amount is certainly a difference, and sugar is not a healthy thing to eat.

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July 7, 2010 8:29 PM    in reply to Snig

According to the lecture I referenced, glucose is nature's way of storing energy. Nearly every plant and animal is equipped to process it. Fructose is not easily handled by the body, must be broken down by the liver, and a portion is automatically converted by the liver to fat.

I believe pasta is broken down into glucose, but without the fructose.

My point is sugar = HFCS, and both are bad in significant quantity, as is every processed food. Don't single out HFCS because it is not the end of the problem, but the beginning.

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July 7, 2010 6:24 PM    in reply to moab

@Moab Thank you for that clarification – it is also important to note that recent studies that have examined pure fructose have been inappropriately applied to high fructose corn syrup. Not only does high fructose corn syrup always contain glucose which is missing from pure fructose, but the studies that cause confusion examined artificially high levels of pure fructose not found either in high fructose corn syrup or in any normal diet.

Audrae Erickson, Corn Refiners Association

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July 8, 2010 12:44 AM    in reply to cornrefiner

Since you're here, please explain why in this study http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20219526
"Rats with 12-h access to HFCS gained significantly more body weight than animals given equal access to 10% sucrose, even though they consumed the same number of total calories, but fewer calories from HFCS than sucrose."

If the only thing that matters is calories, why was there a difference seen? I've read your previous refutation of this study, so please just respond to this point.

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July 8, 2010 9:32 AM   

It's not totally clear, but the article seems to be saying that a 20% tax on soda will result in a 20% reduction in consumption. I find that hard to believe.

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